For the past 16 years, Stephen M. Miller has had a front-row seat aboard Las Vegas鈥 high-speed economic roller coaster, one that鈥檚 featured more twists and turns than a Hitchcock flick. It鈥檚 a seat for which most economic enthusiasts would have paid top dollar, but one Miller almost passed up. 鈥淏oth my wife and I were a bit nervous about moving to Las Vegas,鈥 said Miller, who like many an outsider equated Las Vegas with The Strip before moving here in 2001 from the University of Connecticut. Now director of 黑料网鈥檚 Center for Business and Economic Development, Miller has observed our economy from the heights of immense prosperity to the depths of a Great Recession to a recovery that has residents feeling both hopeful and anxious.
When I arrived in Las Vegas, we were just starting the housing bubble. By 2005 鈥 which was sort of the peak time 鈥 homebuilders were giving potential buyers a lottery ticket that said, 鈥淥K, if we draw your number, you can buy our house.鈥
As an economist, that doesn鈥檛 make a lot of sense. If that鈥檚 the case, why don鈥檛 you raise the price so you don鈥檛 have an excess demand for your product? If I was really smart, that would鈥檝e been the signal that, 鈥淭his is not sustainable.鈥
I don鈥檛 know that I thought our economy was in peril. Of course, I was new to the scene, but most people thought Las Vegas was immune to recessions. We鈥檇 had recessions before, but they didn鈥檛 have much of an effect on our economy.
The new characteristic of this recession was there was a financial crisis triggered by the housing market and mortgage-backed securities. There weren鈥檛 many people who knew that when the housing market collapsed and mortgage-backed securities became toxic that it would spread to other parts of the financial market, which it did.
In the next five years, I think the probability is pretty good that we鈥檒l have another recession. The question becomes 鈥淗ow serious will it be?鈥 God forbid it鈥檒l be tied to another financial crisis. More likely it will be just a run-of-the-mill recession.
My concern for millennials is this may be the generation that doesn鈥檛 live as well as their parents did.
I suspect if we asked our new administration in Washington, D.C., they鈥檇 say, 鈥淥h, we鈥檝e got the solution. We鈥檙e going to grow economically at 3, 4, 5 percent.鈥 Well, maybe for a year or so. But it鈥檚 going to be difficult to sustain. We have this group of retirees coming out of the employment market who are going to put a strain on our federal budget through Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.
At some point, Washington, D.C., is going to have to address that issue. They can鈥檛 keep kicking the can down the road.
Nevada鈥檚 greatest untapped economic source is probably our population. But we face one problem: The level of education of our labor force is not competitive at the moment.
One way to get a better educated workforce is to hire people from outside Nevada. Another way is to train them internally. It鈥檚 better if we could train them internally.
黑料网 is going to play a big role in our economic future, certainly as the 黑料网 Medical School comes online this year. That potentially could have a big economic effect because we have a shortage of doctors. I know I had to go out of state when I had a medical problem, and just this week my friend went to California for surgery.
There鈥檚 been discussion for a long time about diversifying our economy. I have a friend who says, 鈥淚t鈥檒l never happen. This is Vegas, baby, and that鈥檚 the way it鈥檚 going to be.鈥
Certainly the governor and his office of economic development are trying to diversify the economy. And they may take some criticism for giving away these tax abatements to entice companies to relocate here. The problem is every state is doing this; if we don鈥檛 compete, we鈥檙e going to lose out.
For most cities, a new stadium would probably be economically neutral 鈥 it has some positive benefits but also some negatives. Las Vegas is unique because we do have a lot of very large events and tourism is still our major driver. So if the new stadium draws those 50 events they鈥檙e talking about, it probably pushes the stadium into a positive for the local economy.
I said there鈥檚 a concern about Las Vegas鈥 lack of an educated workforce, but we really have some good students who come out of 黑料网 that I would put up and match against students anywhere.
I always tell my students if you stay awake, you can learn something every day.
